Notations On Our World (Special Mid-Week Edition): On #BeirutBlast, #Iran, #Election2020 In the US & Other Thoughts
The last 24 hours has been horrific as Lebanon was witness to a horrific explosion that was felt as far back as Cyprus. We understood that an Earthquake was also felt in Jordan. The explosion was just like what happened in Hiroshima and Nagakasi. There are some reports that the warehouse where the explosion occured may have belonged to Hezbollah — The Lebanese Prime Minister has promised further explanations as the World awaits the verdict on the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Harriri — whom we view as the Father of Modern Lebanon. Our team will continue to assess it over the ensuing days.
Beyond Lebanon, there is Iran. We received a report of another execution announced by Iran who was detained during the uprising three years ago which was of profound concern as we were quite amazed by how Iran sent forth an airplane of supplies in spite of the profound challenges Iran is faced with due to how COVID-19 continues to ravage Iran. We have also been seeing reports of a claim by the Iranian President of deliberations with the head of the three branches of Government and the supposed announcement of additional measures to relieve economic pressures after an approval by the Supreme Guide (Supreme Leader) as economic challenges compounded by the ravates of COVID-19 continues to devastate the Country We have been reviewing reports on wide-spread strikes by workers, how rationing is starting to be prevalent and as a majority of the country continues ot be under povertry line — and even one headline noted how the monthly rents.
We have also been assessing the United States. Some interesting developments occured in primaries yesterday as the countdown to the General Elections continue. This is as President Trump’s interview with Axios earlier this week made the headlines. As we continue to assess the state of the elections and provide updated guidance over the ensuing days, our team decided to release the following courtesy the team at Predictit — We had been hoping to share guidance on the promised Healthcare Plan by President Trump which was due to be released — however it was delayed. This is as the plans for the convention continues including tenative plans by President Trump to deliver his acceptance speech from the South Lawn of the White House and Former Vice President Biden to deliver his from his home state of Delaware in light of the raging COVID-19 pandemic.We leave all with the following as we look forward to our weekly assessment next week:
You Said How Much? A Cool $280 Million on Ads for Biden Campaign
What’s Happening: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden and his presidential campaign announced Wednesday that they will blanket television and social media with $280 million in advertising by Election Day, more than his rival’s campaign has spent in total since 2017.The advertising outlay across 15 states marks a sharp increase for the former vice president, who once struggled to find money during his party’s primary and only aired his first general election ad blitz in June.The new Biden ad reservations, which includes $60 million allocated to digital ads, would exhaust all of the $242 million his campaign reported having available to spend last month. The sum also all but guarantees that the Trump-Biden showdown will be the most expensive US election in history.
Biden Leads Trump by 18¢: Who will win the 2020 US presidential election?Ahead of Biden’s new reservations, the campaign had spent $47 million on TV and radio ads, Kantar/CMAG shows, and roughly $27 million in digital ads. “Our approach is to go on offense, to have a broad strategy across all platforms and channels to reach voters where they are,” said Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager to reporters.The Biden campaign will continue running ads in the six core battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida. They’ve also made reservations in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, including Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has reserved nearly $150 million in television ads across 11 states for the fall, according to media research companies. To date, Trump has significantly out-spent Biden on Facebook, Google and on television.The Trump campaign also said this week that it was resuming advertising in four states — North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona — after taking a temporary pause for an internal strategy review. According to ad tracker Kantar/CMAG, Trump has television ads reserved between now and Election Day in a dozen states.
Market: Which party will win the 2020 US presidential election? Campaign Logic: Biden has been leading Trump in a series of polls taken in battleground states including Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The coronavirus pandemic has had an adverse effect on Trump’s polls, with 37 percent of voters approving of his handling of the pandemic and 59 percent disapproving.Progress in the polls has allowed Biden’s campaign to make ad reservations that will build multiple pathways to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. The strategy is also designed to force the president’s campaign to spend money in states such as Texas and Georgia, which have been reliably Republican in past elections. “We’re really building a strategy that allows for that expanded map and to be on offense,” Dillon explained.
Map: Which party will win the Electoral College? “Old Fashioned” Campaigning: A recent POLITICO article out last night paints a stark difference between the two campaign’s approaches to campaigning.While both campaigns are funneling millions of dollars into their field programs, the Trump campaign says it’s knocked on over 1 million doors in the past week alone. Biden’s campaign, on the other hand, says it knocked on zero.Trump Victory has over 1,500 full-time staffers across 23 states, and it has required staffers to read “Groundbreakers: How Obama’s 2.2 Million Volunteers Transformed Campaigning in America,” a close look at Obama’s 2008 and 2012 ground games. And to top things off, the Republican National Committee (RNC) says it will add an additional 1,000 people by the end of September to focus on doors and get out the vote.By contrast, the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) aren’t sending volunteers or staffers to talk with voters at home, and don’t anticipate doing anything more than dropping off literature unless the crisis abates. The campaign and the DNC think they can compensate for the lack of in-person canvassing with phone calls, texts, new forms of digital organizing and virtual meet-ups with voters.The competing strategies on face-to-face campaigning has no modern precedent, making it a potential wild card in November, especially in close races.
Market: What will be the Electoral College margin in the 2020 presidential election? Wisdom of the Crowd: The presumptive Democratic nominee leads President Trump in the overall 2020 US presidential winner market by 18¢ as of close yesterday. Biden YES shares are trading at 60¢, down 3¢ since a 90-day high on July 28 of 63¢. President Trump’s shares are trading at 42¢, up 4¢ since a 90-day low of 38¢ on July 18.A similar trend can be seen in the generic party winner market where the generic Democrat contract is trading at 63¢, down 4¢ from the 90-day high of 66¢ on July 2. The Republican contract is up 3¢ since it’s 90-day low of 37¢ on the same day and is currently trading at 40¢. That means a 23¢ gap has formed with traders favoring a Democratic victory this fall at 63¢ to 40¢.In the Electoral College margin of victory market traders continue to expect Democrats to win by at least 100 votes with the top four contracts separated by just 2¢.The top two contracts going into today’s trading were “Democrats by 280+” and “Democrats by 150–209”, which were both at 14¢. The highest Republican contract remains to be “GOP to win by 60 to 99” votes at 7¢.